DAILY READ

USTR has proposed Section 301 forced-labor duties on 60 trading partners. Comments close July 6, the hearing is July 7, and Section 122 expires July 24. Map your exposure now, before the determination, not after.

On June 2, USTR released findings on its Section 301 forced-labor investigations, proposing duties of 10% to 12.5% across 60 economies, including China, India, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam. The proposal is reported to exclude pharmaceuticals and goods already subject to Section 232. The measure is proposed, not final: comments are due July 6, a hearing is set for July 7, and no implementation date has been set. Section 122 expires July 24, creating a key decision point for the post-expiry tariff posture, not an effective date for the proposed duties.

If finalized, the measure would move this exposure into Section 301's statutory and review framework. It is not final, does not automatically replace Section 122, and has no confirmed effective date. The proposal nevertheless brings many sourcing locations used for China diversification into the same investigative scope.

The hearing-and-comment window is the action item. Requests to appear at the July 7 hearing are due June 22; written comments are due July 6. The Section 122 product exclusion list is expected to carry over, so the comment record will shape any exclusion framework applied to these duties. Companies with concentrated exposure in a targeted economy have a narrow, real opening to argue for preferential treatment before rates are fixed.

Yale Budget Lab's effective tariff rate holds at 11.0%, the highest since 1943 excluding the prior year. CBP's CAPE refund process for IEEPA Phase 1 entries remains active. Liquidation timing, not the litigation calendar, governs eligibility.

Effective US Tariff Rate
11.0%
Holding
Highest since 1943 · Yale Budget Lab
Section 301 Economies in Scope
16+
+5 vs 30d ago
Active hearings · Forced labor + capacity
Section 122 Statutory Status
Expires Jul 24
Active
10% surcharge · expires July 24 · Section 301 forced-labor proposed
IEEPA Refund Window
60d
Closing
Est. refund processing · CAPE Phase 1
CLOSING WINDOWS · MID-2025 ENTRIES

Importers who paid IEEPA duties have a closing recovery window. Most haven't filed.

The February 20, 2026 Supreme Court ruling striking IEEPA tariff authority opened the refund path, but the procedural windows close fast: CAPE Phase 1 reaches liquidated entries only within 80 days, and older entries need a protest within 180 days. Three pieces of the picture, plus a path to action.

COURT STATUS
Supreme Court struck IEEPA tariff authority on February 20. Refund scope now contested on appeal.

In Learning Resources v. Trump, the Supreme Court held that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs, invalidating roughly $166 billion in collected duties. A DOJ appeal at the Federal Circuit challenges whether the universal refund order reaches importers who did not sue, which is the determinant variable for non-plaintiffs.

Ruling dateFeb 20, 2026
Appeal statusPending
Duties invalidated~$166B
REFUND MECHANICS
CAPE Phase 1 went live April 20. Refunds run 60 to 90 days.

CBP's Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries system handles IEEPA refunds. Phase 1 covers unliquidated entries and those within 80 days of liquidation, with refunds estimated at 60 to 90 days. Entries past that window require a protest under Section 1514 within 180 days of liquidation.

ProcessCAPE Phase 1 (live Apr 20)
Phase 1 window80 days from liquidation
Protest window180 days
ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA
Three conditions. Mid-2025 entries face the window first.

Eligibility requires (1) entries dated during the IEEPA tariff period through February 23, 2026, (2) duty paid under IEEPA authority specifically (not Section 232, 301, 122, or AD/CVD), and (3) liquidation status: unliquidated, within 80 days of liquidation for CAPE Phase 1, or within the 180-day protest window.

Entry datesIEEPA period
Duty authorityIEEPA-specific
Phase 1 liquidation window80 days
Check whether you have IEEPA refund-eligible entries. Two-minute exposure screen identifies portfolio companies with mid-2025 IEEPA-paid entries before the PSC window closes. Output is a memo with the questions to put in front of your customs broker and trade counsel.
Check eligibility →
Live tariff feed
7 verified updates · last 24 hours
06:18 ET
Today
USTR · SECTION 301
USTR proposes 10 to 12.5% forced-labor duties on 60 economies; comment window opens
June 2 findings cover 60 trading partners, with proposed duties of 10% to 12.5%. The proposal is reported to exclude pharmaceuticals and goods already subject to Section 232. Written comments are due July 6 and a hearing is set for July 7. No effective date is set; Section 122 expires July 24.
VISIBILITY · CRITICAL PATH
14:10 ET
Jun 2
USTR · SECTION 301
Hearings on 16 economies for structural overcapacity enter second week
Vietnam, India, Korea, Mexico in scope alongside China. Industry submissions from electronics, apparel, automotive, and consumer goods sectors filed coordinated comments. Comment record will inform tariff rate determinations expected late June.
VISIBILITY · BEST IN CLASS
09:30 ET
Jun 1
CBP · IEEPA REFUNDS
CAPE Phase 1 processing accelerates as liquidation windows approach
CAPE Phase 1, live since April 20, covers unliquidated entries and those within 80 days of liquidation; older entries need a protest within 180 days. Importers without entry-level visibility cannot quantify their position.
NEGOTIABLE · CRITICAL PATH
16:45 ET
May 28
CBP · UFLPA ENFORCEMENT
Forced labor enforcement footprint expands to 60 economies
Detention pattern over the past 90 days indicates enforcement actions touching electronics, apparel, automotive components, agricultural products, and seafood. Working capital implication, not duty cost, is the operating exposure.
CONTROLLABLE · BEST IN CLASS
08:00 ET
May 27
YALE BUDGET LAB
Effective rate holds at 11.0% as Section 122 nears July 24 expiry
Pre-substitution effective tariff rate is highest level since 1943 excluding the prior year's rates. Rate trajectory beyond July will depend in part on the Section 301 forced-labor determination and on what, if anything, follows the July 24 expiration of Section 122.
VISIBILITY · CRITICAL PATH
19:48 ET
May 6
USMCA · MEXICO
Substantial transformation documentation gaps surface as Mexico exposure widens
Where the USMCA qualification claim relies on assembly-only operations, the firewall is thinner than CFOs assume. Companies with embedded Mexico-origin content in finished goods need to validate qualification under current rules before Section 301 hearings conclude.
CONTROLLABLE · BEST IN CLASS
14:30 ET
May 6
CBP · DRAWBACK
Drawback ruling clarifies substitution eligibility for electronics components
CBP HQ ruling confirms substitution drawback eligibility for commercially interchangeable Chinese-origin electronics components, expanding recovery pathways for importers without specific lot tracking.
NEGOTIABLE · CRITICAL PATH
What's moving
Top rate and exposure shifts · as of June 9
Effective US tariff rate
Yale Budget Lab daily tracker
11.0%
Holding
Section 232 steel
No drawback eligibility
25.0%
Active
Section 232 aluminum
Country-specific layers
10.0%
Active
Section 301 China weighted avg
Lists 1 through 4B · Drawback eligible
19.4%
Steady
Section 122 surcharge
10% · expires July 24
10.0%
Contested
Section 301 investigations
Economies in scope vs. 30 days ago
+15
16 total
UFLPA enforcement footprint
Economies under detention pattern
60
Expanded Apr 28
Pick your path
Tariff exposure looks different at the portfolio level than at the operating-company level. Choose the path that matches your seat.
SCREEN MY PORTFOLIO
Add portfolio companies3-minute screen
Live triage matrix populates4 quadrants
Output: board-ready memo1 page · forwardable
Data handlingBrowser-local
For operating partners, deal teams, and portfolio CFOs. The matrix triages which companies need immediate review, where recovery is sitting, and what to monitor across the portfolio.
Run the portfolio screener →
SECTOR TERRAIN · HC
MAP MY EXPOSURE
Map tariff pressure across devices, pharmacy, and disposables.
For hospital systems, specialty service operators, life sciences, payers, and senior living. Healthcare margins absorb tariff costs because reimbursement doesn't move when tariffs do. The diagnostic adapts to your operation type.
2 min · Sub-segmented · 8-category pressure map
Run the diagnostic →
SECTOR TERRAIN · INDUSTRIAL
MAP MY EXPOSURE
Map tariff pressure across your sourcing footprint.
For industrial CFOs and supply chain leads. Imported inputs, steel and aluminum content, supplier contract pass-through, and recovery review. Sector-specific exposure brief in two minutes.
2 min · 6 questions · Industrial pressure map included
Run the diagnostic →
SECTOR TERRAIN · AUTOMOTIVE
MAP MY EXPOSURE
Trace tariff compounding across your supply chain tiers.
For OEM and supplier procurement, cost engineering, and finance. Section 232 and 301 stack at every tier a component crosses the border, and USMCA qualification is the single largest offset. The cascade shows where landed cost builds and where it can be stripped back.
2 min · BOM-tier cascade · USMCA qualification check
Run the diagnostic →
BRIEFINGS · LATEST
READ THE BRIEF
USTR's proposed Section 301 forced-labor duties reach 60 trading partners. See what is at stake before the July 24 Section 122 expiry.
USTR's June 2 findings, court rulings, CBP guidance, and sourcing implications, translated from legal authority into business action. Roughly 200 words per issue. Three minutes.
4 issues live · Released on material change · No marketing sequences
Open the archive →

Where do you stand on the maturity curve?

A directional five-question assessment that places your tariff response on the Critical Path, Best in Class, or Innovative Differentiation arc. Six minutes to complete.

01. Visibility
02. Competitive
03. Controllable
04. Negotiable
VISIBILITY
Have you mapped tariff exposure at the SKU and BOM level across your import footprint?
NEGOTIABLE
Have you filed for IEEPA refunds and Section 301 drawback recovery on eligible entries?
COMPETITIVE
Do you actively track USTR investigations, court rulings, and CBP enforcement signals?
CONTROLLABLE
Have you modeled country-of-origin alternatives and substantial transformation pathways?
NEGOTIABLE
Have your supplier contracts been audited for tariff pass-through and duty-sharing terms?
Your maturity profile
Critical Path
Score 3 of 10 · Stage 1 of 3
CRITICAL PATH BEST IN CLASS INNOVATIVE DIFF.
Your responses suggest exposure visibility is partial and recovery and contract levers have not been fully exercised. The first move is to convert recovery opportunity to cash before windows close, then build SKU-level visibility before the next pricing cycle.
Your top three priorities, in order
1
File CAPE refund claims on unliquidated IEEPA entries, and protest liquidated entries within the 180-day window.
PILLAR 04 · TIME-SENSITIVE · 14–60 DAYS
2
Initiate Section 301 drawback feasibility assessment with five-year lookback recovery estimate.
PILLAR 04 · DURABLE OPPORTUNITY
3
Audit top fifteen supplier contracts for tariff pass-through clauses and duty-sharing terms.
PILLAR 04 · INTERNAL EXECUTION
Run the portfolio screener →

How this works

Tariff Terrain synthesizes tariff policy events, court actions, CBP guidance, and trade data through a structured ontology that maps each signal to operational and financial implications. The dashboard's value isn't ingestion — public data is available to everyone. The value is the semantic conversion layer that turns fragmented policy movement into decision-grade signals.

The framework rests on four pillars and three maturity stages. Each pillar represents a category of leverage. Each stage represents the depth of capability through which that leverage is exercised. Together they define how to triage work and where to direct first effort.

PILLAR 01
Visibility to Impact
SKU- and BOM-level exposure across nine dimensions.
PILLAR 02
Competitive Strategy
Convert tariff pressure into share and channel position.
PILLAR 03
Controllable Levers
Sourcing, footprint, design, and process moves.
PILLAR 04
Negotiable Economics
Recovery, pricing, contracts, and policy advocacy.
What stands behind it
Ankura practice depth. Built within Ankura Consulting Group's Strategy and Performance practice, drawing on the firm's deep trade, tariff, and supply-chain advisory experience across regulated and import-intensive industries.
Primary regulatory sourcing. USTR docket, Federal Register, CBP Phase 1/2 guidance, USITC HTS, Court of International Trade and Federal Circuit. No licensing dependencies, no aggregator intermediation.
Yale Budget Lab integration. Open-source effective rate calculations validated against retrospective trade flow data. Used as the macro baseline against which sector-specific exposure is measured.
Decision-objects ontology. Each signal normalized into Policy Event, Exposure, Impact, Action, and Prospect Signal — converting raw data into the operating decision the executive actually needs to make.
Last full review May 8 · 06:30 ET
Authoritative sources 90+ tracked
Coverage Global · 190+ jurisdictions