PORTFOLIO TERRAIN PORTFOLIO TARIFF EXPOSURE SCREENER

Most portfolios don't know what they paid in 2025. Or what's coming in 2026.

Tariff exposure is no longer a customs issue. It is a portfolio-level operating decision: which companies absorbed unrecovered duty in 2025, which ones can claim it back, and which face the next round of policy change. This three-minute screener triages your portfolio across all three.

The screener does not estimate dollar exposure. It tells you where to invest the next conversation. The dollar work happens after.

Output: a portfolio triage memo identifying which companies need immediate review, where recovery is sitting, what to monitor, and the questions to ask each portfolio CFO. Forwardable. One page.

No data leaves your browser unless you submit the memo request. The portfolio you enter is held in your session and is included in the memo so the analysis is specific to your situation.

§ 03 OUTPUT · PORTFOLIO TRIAGE MEMO

Get the board-ready memo on which companies need attention first.

The memo translates your matrix into a prioritized action list: companies for immediate review, recovery candidates, monitoring requirements, and the questions to ask each portfolio CFO. Forwardable. One page. Emailed within two business days.

SECTION 01

Triage Summary

Companies in scope, sector concentration, primary lever.

SECTION 02

Immediate Review

Companies with high exposure and low preparedness.

SECTION 03

Recovery Candidates

Cash-back opportunities by company and pathway.

SECTION 04

CFO Questions

Five questions to put in front of each portfolio CFO.

Sample

Portfolio Triage Memo · 1 page

Crestmark Capital · 12 portfolio companies

Tariff exposure triage · May 2026 · Prepared for: Operating Partner

Immediate review 3 companies

01Apex Industrial · Section 232 stack on imported steel inputs · Pass-through gap on three Tier 1 supplier contracts

02Northstar Auto Components · Section 232 metals plus Section 301 stacking on aluminum casting inputs sourced from China and Mexico operations

03BlueGate Specialty · Single-origin API on two of four product families, no validated second source; exposed if the Section 232 generic exclusion narrows on Commerce review

Recovery candidates 4 companies

01Apex Industrial · IEEPA refund candidate via CAPE Phase 1; protest window 180 days from liquidation · Estimated recovery range: $1.4M – $3.2M

02Northstar Auto Components · Section 301 drawback opportunity on five-year lookback for finished goods exports

CFO question set 10 questions

01Have we mapped tariff exposure at the SKU and BOM level across the import footprint?

02Are supplier contracts indexed to landed cost or to FOB ex-works pricing?

03Have we filed CAPE claims on unliquidated IEEPA entries and protested liquidated ones within the 180-day window?

30-day action path

W1Pull entry summaries for 3 immediate-review companies; convene with brokers

W2Run pass-through audit on top 5 supplier contracts at Apex and Northstar

W3File CAPE claims on unliquidated IEEPA entries; protest liquidated entries before the 180-day window closes

Sample output · Actual memo personalized to your portfolio inputs · Names anonymized

REQUEST · BOARD-READY MEMO

Get the board-ready exposure memo

One-page portfolio triage memo · Arrives within 2 business days · Optional 30-minute pressure-test call

Matrix reference

Directional triage tool, not a quantitative model. Exposure is inferred from sourcing geography, sector, and import intensity. Preparedness from the stated top concern.

QUADRANT 01

IMMEDIATE REVIEW

High exposure, low preparedness.

Import-heavy companies with concentrated China or Vietnam sourcing, no SKU-level visibility, no contract audit. Where the unmodeled tariff cost is sitting and where the next 90 days will surface the most P&L impact.

QUADRANT 02

RECOVERY OPPORTUNITY

High exposure, ready to act.

Significant tariff spend with an organization aware of refund, drawback, or contract pass-through paths. Cash recovery candidates first. Where the next 14 to 60 days have material upside if the windows are not missed.

QUADRANT 03

MONITOR

Lower exposure, but blind.

Less directly exposed today, but limited visibility means future policy moves could land hard. Worth a quarterly screen and a baseline maturity assessment. Section 301 expansion creates new exposure pockets.

QUADRANT 04

LOW PRIORITY

Domestic or well-prepared.

Limited import exposure, contract terms in place, recovery already reviewed. Monitor only. Reallocate diligence attention to higher-priority companies in the portfolio.

How the screener works

The triage matrix plots companies on two inferred axes: exposure likelihood and operational preparedness. Both are directional, not quantitative.

Exposure is inferred from sector, sourcing geography, and import intensity. Industrial and automotive sectors carry higher base exposure due to embedded steel, aluminum, and electronics content. China sourcing carries the highest current rate stack. Mexico and Vietnam carry medium exposure with country-specific risk profiles.

Preparedness is inferred from the stated top concern. A company that names "unknown exposure" as the top concern is treated as low-prepared regardless of other signals. A company that names "recovery / refunds" is treated as higher-prepared, on the logic that this concern indicates the organization is actively engaged with the trade compliance question.

PILLAR 01

Visibility to Impact

SKU- and BOM-level exposure across nine dimensions.

PILLAR 02

Competitive Strategy

Convert tariff pressure into share and channel position.

PILLAR 03

Controllable Levers

Sourcing, footprint, design, and process moves.

PILLAR 04

Negotiable Economics

Recovery, pricing, contracts, and policy advocacy.

Important boundary

The screener does not estimate dollar exposure. It does not forecast EBITDA impact, refund amounts, or P&L change. The output prioritizes where to look. The dollar work requires entry-level data, contract review, and supplier mapping that the screener does not collect.

Browser-local data handling. Information you enter into the portfolio table is held in your browser session and is not transmitted unless you submit the memo request form. When you do submit, the responses are sent to the form processor and stored securely for the purpose of generating your memo.

Quadrant logic. High exposure plus low preparedness routes to Immediate Review. High exposure plus higher preparedness routes to Recovery Opportunity. Lower exposure plus low preparedness routes to Monitor. Lower exposure plus high preparedness routes to Low Priority.

Inputs collected 6 per company

Output format 1-page PDF memo

Delivery ≤ 2 business days